SHFE Copper Continued to Retreat, Social Inventory Rebounded [SHFE Market Closing Review on March 31]

SHFE copper opened lower in the morning and continued to fluctuate downward, closing down 0.92%. External sentiment weakened and uncertainty increased, while domestic refined copper social inventory stopped declining, leading SHFE copper to maintain a pullback stance.

Recently released US economic data showed weakness, coupled with concerns that tariffs could harm demand, market sentiment weakened. Minmetals Futures stated that the US may impose tariffs on copper in the coming weeks. Although the uncertainty of the tariff magnitude still poses volatility risks, the trend of global refined copper shifting to the US has halted, easing the expected copper shortage outside the US. Meanwhile, concerns about demand caused by tariffs on copper and the upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" by the US have intensified.

According to SMM, the CSPT held its Q1 2025 general manager office meeting in Shanghai on the morning of March 31, deciding not to set a Q2 spot copper concentrate guidance price. Regarding the supply and demand side, Jinrui Futures stated that on the supply side, recycled smelting has not been affected, with high production schedule expectations for March, but a decline is expected to start in April. Overseas, there have been recent reports of smelting production suspensions in Chile and Mexico. On the consumption side, downstream wire and cable enterprises reported moderate orders, and future consumption is expected to be resilient.